WebGraph and download economic data for Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities from Jun 1967 to Jul 2024 about recession indicators, academic data, USA, percent, GDP, and indexes. ... Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non ... WebUnited States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 4.96% in December of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in December of 1974 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual …

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - FRED St. Louis Fed

WebThe probabilities are obtained from dynamic-factor markov-switching model and consists of four variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real … Web*Parameters estimated using data from January 1959 to December 2009, recession probabilities predicted using data through Mar 2024. The parameter estimates are = … emily monsour

Recession Probability Models – April 2024

WebYou understand that when using the FRED® Dashboard, you may be exposed to user submissions from a variety of sources. You further understand and acknowledge that you … WebUnited States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 4.96% in December of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - … WebApr 11, 2024 · This model is described on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site (FRED) as follows: Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income … dragon age seeker of the dawn